Although most major investment bankers believe that London Brandtoil priceIt may rise above US$90 per barrel in the next few months, but JPMorgan Chase (JP Morgan) is more bullish and believes thatRussiaThe production cut could push Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel by the end of September.
JPMorgan’s analyst team’s estimates are based primarily on Russia’s recent decision to cut output by 471,000 barrels per day, bringing total daily output to 9 million barrels by June.
JPMorgan believes that Russia’s unexpected promise is “serious” and that Brent oil prices could reach US$90 per barrel in April, the mid-US$90s by May, and US$100 by September. Brent oil prices rose 0.6% to $86.57 per barrel on the 28th, still about $4 lower than Morgan Stanley’s April estimate.
However, Morgan Stanley also said any bullish sentiment on oil prices could be influenced by “multiple aspects.” The most obvious “rebalancing mechanism” in the short term is the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States. The United States still has “policy space” to release 60 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and could release up to 500,000 barrels per day within four months.
Based on the current net import demand of approximately 188 days of US strategic oil storage, which is more than double the 90-day storage recommended by the International Energy Agency (IEA), releasing strategic oil storage is a practical option, and the White House An attempt could be made to “switch the oil operation”, that is, release it earlier this year and cover at an expected lower price later.
Xiaomo pointed out that due to high interest rates and a strong US dollar, oil prices rising above US$90 per barrel could cause serious disruption and weaken demand. JPMorgan said the rise in international oil prices projected by the bank could push the average gasoline price in the United States to US$4 a gallon by May, the highest level since 2022. If the average national gasoline price rises to $4 per gallon, summer demand could be reduced by 200,000 barrels per day. If the average diesel price increases by $5 per gallon, daily demand could be reduced by 50,000 to 100,000 barrels.
Furthermore, whether or not Brent crude oil can rise to $100 may also depend onOilShould the Organization of the Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) extend production cuts through December, Morgan Stanley expects a 50% chance of OPEC+ cutting production by the end of the year.
Currency fluctuations are another factor that could reduce global demand. Emerging market currencies have fallen 3.3% against the US dollar this year, and have declined 20% since mid-2021, which could put additional pressure on demand in developing countries. Gasoline inflation rates in countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam are in double digits.
As the rise in international oil prices may face various adverse factors, Morgan Stanley decided to maintain this year’s average Brent crude oil price forecast at US$83 per barrel, the average price in the third quarter was 84. The fourth quarter in US dollars and the average price is US$85.
finance(tagstotranslate)oil price