Regarding the recent global trade situation and China’s foreign trade situation, Zhu Min, vice president of the China Center for International Economic Exchange and former vice president of the International Monetary Fund, said in an interview with the media at the Boao Forum for Asia. 28th, due to many factors such as geopolitics, China’s exports, production in China is one concept, and production by Chinese enterprises and capital is another concept. Market rules are one concept, and geopolitical influence is another. Overall, Chinese capital and Chinese enterprise production and exports are still good. Therefore, China’s exports are expected to bounce back.

Zhu Min said that in the above sense, a big theoretical issue is rising in China, that is whether China has Gross National Product (GNP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to the current model, this is GNP.

Zhu Min pointed out that the current trade mainly faces anti-globalization and anti-globalization problems, and Chinese products cannot export. China’s solar products blocked at the US border last year cost more than US$10 billion. As a result, more than 200,000 jobs in the United States were affected, as US installed solar capacity saw negative growth last year compared to the previous year. Year. Without Chinese solar panels and other equipment, they cannot produce, which will hamper their green transition.

Zhu Min said that there has been a big change in global trade. This is not entirely due to market factors, but due to market factors and political factors. This is unprecedented. In the era of globalization, global influence, outsourcing, industrial chains and services global market it is basically a market economy factor. Now, geopolitical factors are added to market economy factors, making it difficult to use market economy models to predict foreign trade.

However, Zhu Min believes that China’s exports will increase this year for several reasons: first, China’s exports of three new commodities (electric vehicles, batteries and solar energy) have a particularly big impact on the world, and In fact, it promotes global green transition. This consensus is rapidly emerging around the world;

Second, China has increased its export diversification. Exports to Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, including Japan and South Korea, have actually declined, but “One Belt, One Road“Countries along the route have increased exports to Latin America, Africa, ASEAN and other countries;

Third, China’s intermediate products already account for 15% of global exports.Mexico,vietnamFactories have been set up in Thailand and Malaysia. Many intermediate products are exported to these countries, assembled locally, and then exported to larger markets such as Europe and the United States using local products.

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