TSMCFounder Zhang Zhongmou said on the 16th that semiconductorthe supply chainThe polarization between China and other countries has led to the death of globalization and free trade in the semiconductor industry, but it is also under threat.PieceAs a result, the industry will stop growing or slow down, and enter a completely different new game.
Zhang Zhongmo talked with Chris Miller, the author of “War on Chips” yesterday, and released the above thoughts. The rare dialogue attracted various industry leaders and embassies representatives from 15 countries in Taiwan, including Taiwan’s Vice President Lai Qingde, TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin and President Wei Zhejia, all came to listen.
Zhang Zhongmou asked Miller, if there is no war, what will happen to the chip supply chain in the next five years? Miller responded that US export controls would polarize the supply chain. Currently, memory is concentrated in South Korea and logic chip manufacturing is concentrated in Taiwan, but the degree of concentration will decrease in the future. Semiconductors are sold internationally, but manufacturing is concentrated in a few countries. It is expected that the market share of manufacturing in each country will be adjusted in the future.
Zhang Zhongmou replied that this was what he wanted to object to. The main reason for the concentration of manufacturing is that few countries have competitive advantages. For example, America’s advantage is in design, while Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan are in manufacturing. The most important thing is people and work culture. Production machines cannot be stopped 24 hours a day in the wafer industry, otherwise the cost will be high.
Zhang Zhongmou said that the ubiquity of semiconductors today is mainly due to the continuous reduction in cost. Looking back in the 1950s, there was no IC. At that time, the cost of transistors was as high as 2 to 3 US dollars, but now there are 10 billion transistors in mobile phones. The price of the transistor is only 1 billionth of a yuan at the beginning, and the transistor can be said to be an indicator of cost reduction.
Zhang Zhongmo believes that chips are ubiquitous because of decreasing costs, but after the disappearance of free trade, it will not help the chip industry at all, and will lead to rising costs. As a result, the chip industry will stop growing or slow down, entering an entirely different new game.
Regarding the migration of manufacturing to the United States, Zhang Zhongmou said that the process is already in progress, but it is also increasing the cost. It is expected that the cost in the United States will be 50% higher than the cost in Taiwan. Will be , He said that perhaps the cost to the United States is greatly underestimated, “The underestimated rate is even more underestimated than itself (Miller once called Zhang Zhongmo the most underestimated business figure in the past 100 years) Said)”.
Lai Qingde emphasized in his speech that day that TSMC is very determined to stay where it was born, grew up and flourished – Taiwan to continue to prosper and develop. The government is committed to developing the economy, improving Taiwan’s investment climate, and continuously providing water, electricity, land, manpower and talent to all Taiwanese companies, including TSMC, so that Taiwan’s economy can prosper.
He pointed out that TSMC’s products are sold all over the world and are the world’s common property, and its achievements are shared by the whole world. Therefore, everyone has a responsibility to TSMC. It is not only Taiwan’s responsibility, but the whole world’s responsibility to continue to support and protect TSMC so that TSMC continues to grow.