“The policies available to save the housing market have almost been exhausted. If we don’t act, we won’t have a chance…?” The Chinese government launched a series of policies to boost the housing market in September to save the housing market. housing market.real estateThe market has been sluggish for a long time – the real estate industry accounts for a quarter of China’s economy. Over the past few decades, it can be said to have driven China’s annual double-digit economic growth figures. But now, many major domestic real estate companies are deep in debt and the real estate slowdown has also weakened the overall Chinese economy. On September 1, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen implemented the policy of “recognize houses but not mortgages” to loosen mortgage restrictions, leading to a boom in the short-term housing market. However, in the half month since the policy was implemented, the number of newly listed homes for sale has far exceeded the transaction volume. Is the policy right? It seems that it is not optimistic to bring positive growth to China’s real estate market.
The Chinese government still hopes to save the falling real estate market. Since the end of August, the government has successively introduced policies to stimulate the housing market, including completely canceling or relaxing housing purchase restrictions in many second-tier cities. “Recognizing the home but not the loan” – According to this policy, as long as the home buyer does not own a property in the locality where he is purchasing the home, he can enjoy preferential interest rates and higher loans “First for “home purchase” (first purchase), regardless of whether he or she has ever taken out a mortgage loan throughout China. ratio (that is, the down payment ratio is reduced).
BeijingShanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen announced the implementation of “recognition of households but not loans” on September 1. Changes in housing market policies in first-tier cities have also increased the popularity of the market. Data from Chinese real estate investment consulting agency “China Index Research Institute” reported, “After the implementation of the “Recognize a house but not a loan” policy, China’s willingness to buy property increased by 15%. Beijing and Shanghai on September 1 After the implementation of the “Recognize the house but not the loan” policy, the willingness to buy property increased by more than 20%. It can be seen that the number of people buying houses has increased significantly. In Shanghai alone , the number of “second-hand homes” listed for sale on September 2 increased by thousands, an increase of 160%. However, the increase in transaction size is limited, and the actual policy effects still need to be seen in the long term. needed.
Mortgage and interest rate adjustment policies initiated by the Chinese government are aimed at stabilizing housing prices in major cities. John Lam, head of China and Hong Kong real estate research at UBS, pointed out in a relevant research report:
NomurasecurityThis outlook is more conservative and pessimistic, indicating that the Chinese government’s relaxation of mortgage policies may provide “a little relief” to the real estate market. However, because there are still various restrictions on housing transactions and land in big cities, the impact policy may have is limited, and other general environment factors including China’s declining exports, geopolitics, weak market confidence, etc. will also affect China’s overall economic environment and Will continue to impact consumer confidence. Therefore, Nomura Securities analyzed:
On China’s Weibo, there are more pessimistic voices about China’s real estate market. Some netizens believe that the sudden increase in the number of second-hand houses listed for sale means that “recognizing the house but not the loan” is bad, and is regarded as the “last exodus” by real estate speculators. As the opportunity approaches, thus starting a wave of sales. “Almost all available policies are expiring. If we don’t run, we won’t have a chance.”