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Supply is tight again, oil is at $100…not far away

london brant originoil priceOn the 19th, prices rose above US$95 per barrel for the first time since November last year and also reached the highest level this year. As the oil market shows new signs of tight supply, industry insiders believe it will rise to US$100. short term. Goldman Sachs warned that if oil prices rise further, it will have an impact on risk assets.

The price of Brent crude oil futures in November rose 0.95% to US$95.33 per barrel on the 19th, which was the first time since November last year that it rose above US$95 per barrel; West Texas crude oil October futures rose 0.96% to US$92.36 a barrel. Dollar. The latest catalyst for rising oil prices is the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast that shale oil production could fall to 9.399 million barrels per day in October, the lowest level since May, andOilThe premium is also increasing in the spot market.

Mike Wirth, CEO of oil giant Chevron, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on the 18th that due to tight supply, oil prices may rise to US$100 per barrel in the near future. “Supply is tightening and inventories are dwindling.” “These trends may indicate that we are undoubtedly headed down that path (with oil prices rising to $100), and getting closer.”

Rising energy prices will clearly add to inflationary pressures, further complicating the Fed’s task of steering the economy toward a soft landing. Economists say the Fed has always underestimated the impact of oil prices on inflation, and may be too happy to see consumer spending slowed and growth cool. However, consumers are currently already under pressure from rising interest payments, and everything still depends on whether or how high oil prices will rise.

Voth has been bullish on oil prices for some time, saying in March that a reduction in excess capacity around the world and an expected pick-up in China’s economic growth would push prices higher. In January last year, when oil prices fell below $87 Below, he predicted that oil prices would rise to $100 due to geopolitical risks. Later,RussiaInvasion of Ukraine, oil prices rose to $130.

International oil prices have increased by more than 30% since mid-June. Saudi Arabia and Russia have reduced crude oil exports, and the economic outlook for the United States and China has improved, all of which support rising oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz said on the 18th that OPEC is working hard to maintain the stability of the oil market and has not set any specific oil price level target to achieve.

The Citigroup analyst team believes that geopolitical and technical factors may allow oil prices to rise above $100 in the short term, but will decline in the longer term.

Video Source: World News Network One Continent Focus

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