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Pin Hao believes that the rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be less than that of other countries. This is the right time to bet on the bond market.

Andrew Bowles, chief investment officer of the global fixed income department of bond investment giant PIMCO, believes that in the next two years the Federal Reservecut interest ratesThe amplitude will be smaller than other majorCentral bankIt’s time to bet on the bond market.

Whole worldRate of interestTraders expect the extent of monetary easing to remain consistent in most developed countries. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England will cut interest rates by about 6 percentage points, 150 basis points, over the next two years. The European Central Bank and the Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates by about 150 basis points each. It’s a little bigger.

Pimco believes that economic prospects vary, and that this consensus is likely to be volatile. It is preparing for divergence of policy paths by central banks, saying that the Fed’s interest rate cuts will be relatively small, mainly because there are large differences in different mortgage markets. Simply put, fixed mortgage rates are more common in the United States, with lenders locking in historically low rates at the start of the pandemic to mitigate the impact of the Federal Reserve’s sharp rate hikes.

The $14.2 billion Pimco International Bond Fund is betting that economies outside the United States will see big cuts in interest rates because most mortgage rates in these countries are floating, meaning higher borrowing over the next two years. Cost will be a factor. Economic growth and inflation exerted greater pressure. As of April 1, the Pimco International Bond Fund was up 1.3% this year, outperforming the benchmark index and most peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“A large number of countries have some similarity and the mortgage market is more likely to benefit from a sharp rise in interest rates,” Boyce said. He and Sachin Gupta, another portfolio manager, said in an interview in London last week that Pimco, which manages total assets of US$1.9 trillion, is more likely to hold bonds in the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Europe. Is optimistic. United States of america.

Stubborn inflation has forced major central banks to keep interest rates high for longer periods of time, disappointing traders who had predicted a move toward easing. At the end of last year the market predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates six times this year, but now it is not sure about cutting rates even three times. Global markets now generally believe that June will be the likely starting point for the central bank’s easing cycle.

Additionally, Pimco’s outlook for the next six to 12 months also includes upside in the US dollar against the euro and other European currencies such as the Swiss franc and Swedish krona, and he expects the US economy to perform distinctly and differently from other countries. .

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