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Natural growth rate of population in 20 provinces of China shows negative growth

The “China Statistical Yearbook 2023” compiled and published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China publishes birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate data for 31 provinces. According to China Business News, the birth rate in 9 provinces will exceed 8 per thousand (8‰) in 2022; 20 provinces will have negative natural population growth rates, an increase of 7 provinces from last year.

The number of births in China will be 9.56 million in 2022, 1.06 million less than in 2021. The birth rate is 6.77‰, a decrease of 0.75 per thousand points from 2021.

In terms of population birth rate, 14 provinces are higher than China’s national average (6.77‰), and 4 provinces among them are 1% or more than 10 per thousand, namely Tibet, Guizhou, Qinghai and Ningxia, all from the western region. . There are 5 provinces with birth rates between 8‰ and 9‰, namely Hainan, Guangxi,GansuGuangdong and Yunnan.

Generally, places with higher birth rates have lower urbanization rates. However, there are some exceptions. For example, the urbanization rate of Guangdong, the largest economic province, ranks fourth in China. However, Guangdong’s birth rate last year reached 8.3‰, ranking eighth in China. Data show that Guangdong’s birth population in 2022 is 1.052 million, making it the only province with a birth population of more than 1 million for three consecutive years. Guangdong has been the province with the highest number of births for five consecutive years.

Peng Peng, executive director of Guangdong Provincial Restructuring Research Association, analyzed that on the one hand, Guangdong’s total permanent population ranks first in China, and the total influx of people from outside the province is very large. The influx population structure is relatively young, and the proportion of people of marriage and childbearing age is relatively low. High. On the other hand, although the willingness to have children in places such as Chaoshan in eastern Guangdong and Zhanjiang in western Guangdong has also declined in recent years, due to the influence of traditional reproductive culture, the willingness to have children in these places is still Relatively high compared to other areas.

Looking at the natural population growth rate by province, a total of 11 provinces will maintain a positive population natural growth rate in 2022, with Tibet, Ningxia, Guizhou, Qinghai and Guangdong ranking in the top five. There are 20 provinces whose natural population growth rate will be negative in 2022. The natural population growth rate of 7 provinces among them changed from positive to negative last year.

In addition, according to the “Statistical Bulletin on China’s Health Care Development in 2022” released by China’s National Health Commission last month, of the population born in China in 2022, 38.9% will have a second child, and 15% will have a third child. will be. Child or more. “Yicai Global” calculates that in 2022, the number of births of one child in China will be 4.41 million, the number of births of second children will be 3.72 million, and the number of births of three or more children will be 1.43 million (rounded to the nearest whole number) was rounded off). The number of children born in China has declined by 51.3% over the past six years.

According to the report, existing measures to encourage childbearing in various parts of China include paying maternity subsidies, home purchase subsidies and other measures, mainly targeting families with two or three children. But encouraging childbearing cannot focus only on the second and third children. Dong Yuzheng, a population expert and researcher with the Guangdong provincial government, said that now there are more measures in various places to encourage the birth of three children, and some people are even encouraging the birth of two children, while relatively few are one child. Born. However, the number of births of triplets is naturally low. To significantly improve the real impact of active childbearing policies, childbearing subsidies should start from one child onwards.



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