leader of the communist party of chinaXi JinpingAlthough deniedcommunist armyThere are plans to invade Taiwan by force in 2027 or 2035, but Deng Yuwen, a Chinese scholar in the United States, said that this would be Taiwan’s most dangerous period, based on analysis of Xi Jinping’s age, China’s economic development, and military preparedness. Needed 2030, and China’s efforts before that were in vain.
Xi Jinping held talks with US President Joe Biden on the 15th, San Francisco time. After the meeting, US officials revealed that Xi Jinping denied rumors that the Communist military planned to invade Taiwan by force in 2027 or 2035, and said that Xi Jinping’s explanation “sounded a little angry. “
Voice of America (VOA) published an analysis article by Deng Yuwen on the 20th, “Taiwan’s most dangerous period is not 2027, but 2030.” He pointed out that at Xi’s age, even if he could live to 2049, he would have already lived to retire. But in 2035, it is entirely possible that he will remain in office for a fifth term.
He said Xi Jinping was unlikely to serve a sixth term because by then he would be too old to suffer from physical and mental problems. This means he will not resolve Taiwan in 2035, and it is very likely earlier. Therefore, around 2030 is a good time for Xi Jinping. right time.
Deng Yuwen also analyzed China’s current economic situation and military preparedness and pointed out that it will take at least several years for the Chinese economy to emerge from the current crisis and restore market confidence.
He said that from now to 2030, Beijing officials have seven years to fight for the economy and complete the dual-cycle layout of the Chinese economy, which will include improving energy and food transportation pipelines, solving technological bottlenecks such as chips and Involves upgrading industries. It took about seven years for Xi to do this work well.
Deng Yuwen pointed out that if Taiwan were to be attacked by force, seven years would be enoughPeople’s Liberation ArmyWeapons and equipment and various responses are more substantial, with the aircraft carrier Fujian being pressed into service, and perhaps a fourth aircraft carrier being commissioned. The number of various advanced weapons, including nuclear bombs, has increased significantly, improving the ability to prevent the United States from intervening in the Taiwan Strait.
Therefore, Xi Jinping will not rush to unify Taiwan by force before 2027, he said. There is no point in rushing. Unless Taiwan declares legal independence and other emergencies, Xi Jinping will promote reunification according to his own rhythm and deployment.
Despite this, Deng Yuwen said that for Xi Jinping, when reunification begins around 2030, the preferred method is peaceful reunification, which is the least costly to both the Taiwan Straits and China. At least Taiwan would not be incinerated by artillery fire, and China would not be subject to Western sanctions. This undoubtedly seems to be the best policy.
He said that perhaps he does not care about the cost of sanctions, but sanctions will indeed put China’s economy in crisis and cause public discontent and an anti-war atmosphere. It is not impossible, and they should try to avoid it if possible.
Deng Yuwen pointed out that this does not mean that Xi will not use force to intimidate Taiwan, so like the “Beeping Model”, “unification should be under the threat of force, which is replaced by the use of force for reunification.” can also be said”. “The threat of real war initiated by the People’s Liberation Army forces Taiwan to the negotiating table, which is potentially the model of peace and reunification that Xi Jinping can adopt.
He said Xi Jinping also knows that considering public opinion in Taiwan, no matter which party is in power, he will not take the initiative to talk about reunification with China. Therefore, Deng Yuwen predicted that around 2030, Xi Jinping will raise the issue of reunification and take action to urge the Taiwan government and representatives of public opinion to respond to the reunification processes set forth by him.
Deng Yuwen said that if Taiwan refuses to accept the proposal, or if Xi proposes terms that are unacceptable to him, he will resort to border invasion and harass the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people. Will create the threat of a large military force. Once the reunification process begins, Taiwan will not delay it indefinitely and will compulsorily implement the anti-secession law. Article 8 forces Taiwan to accept its terms for peace talks.
He said that if Taiwan refuses to accept it, Xi can announce to the world that China has tried its best to promote peaceful cross-strait reunification, but Taiwan does not cooperate and will use force. Usage is really the last resort, thereby establishing validity. Taiwan’s military unification.
Deng Yuwen said that Xi decided to unify Taiwan around 2030 because the initial rule after retaking Taiwan would take from 2 to 3 years to 4 to 5 years and suppressing various resistance forces within Taiwan. will be. The international community also had to accept this new reality.
Focus (to translate tags) Xi Jinping (T) Communist Army (T) People’s Liberation Army