The British Financial Times published an article by Sharma, chairman of Rockefeller International Group, on the 19th, saying that China’s rise as an economic superpower is in reverse. The United States will contribute 45% of world economic growth in 2022 and 2023, and other emerging countries will contribute 50%. And China’s decline could reshape the world order.
Ruchir Sharma wrote an article stating that in the last two years, China’s share in the global economy has suffered the biggest decline since the Mao Zedong era. At such a historical juncture, China’s rise as an economic superpower is being reversed.
The article noted that after remaining stagnant under Mao Zedong in the 1960s and 1970s, China opened up to the world in the 1980s and grew in the following decades. Its share in the global economy has increased almost 10 times from less than 2% to 18.4% in 2021. Never has any country progressed so fast.
But reversal started. China’s share of the world economy will decline slightly in 2022 and fall sharply to 17% this year, the largest decline since the 1960s.
The article states that China’s decline could rearrange the world order. Since the 1990s, China’s share in the global economy has grown primarily at the expense of Europe and Japan. However, the share of Europe and Japan has remained stable over the past two years. The gap left behind by China will be filled primarily by the United States and other emerging countries.
The article reports that the world economy is expected to grow by US$8 trillion to US$105 trillion in 2023, of which the United States will account for 45% and other emerging countries will account for 50%.
Emerging countries mainly include India, Indonesia.MexicoBrazil and Poland, while China did not contribute to growth, a clear indication of possible power shifts ahead.
As China’s population declines, its proportion of the global working-age population has fallen from a peak of 24% to 19%, and will decline further in the future, making it difficult for it to regain its share in the global economy. It will be difficult. ,
Chinese PresidentXi JinpingIt has been said earlier also that history is changing in China’s favor and no one can stop China’s rise.
But Xi Jinping met with the President of the United States in San Francisco last weekbiden(Joe Biden) met with leading American business figures, acknowledging that China still needs foreign trade partners.
However, no matter what Xi Jinping does, China’s proportion in the global economy is likely to decline in the near future. This is the era of the “post-China world”.